Current Signal Readings

As of March 2026. All signals currently at baseline levels.

ALL CLEAR

Structural Layer

Signal 1 — Capex vs Revenue Divergence

Structural

GREEN Persistence: 1 quarter (met)

Current average divergence below 15pp threshold. Hyperscaler capex growth remains broadly in line with revenue trajectory.

Green: <15pp | Yellow: 15–30pp | Red: >30pp · Source: Quarterly earnings · Updated: Quarterly

Signal 2 — Private Credit Stress Basket

Structural

GREEN 0/4 weeks

0 of 4 sub-indicators currently stressed. BDC markets, redemption activity, bank lending, and PIK loans all within normal ranges.

Green: 0–1 stressed | Yellow: 2 stressed | Red: 3–4 stressed · Source: Manual assessment · Updated: Weekly

Financing Layer

Signal 3 — HY Tech OAS Spreads

Financing

GREEN 0/4 weeks

Rolling 5-year percentile below 50th. Currently classified as Sector-Driven (active for escalation).

Green: <50th pctl | Yellow: 50th–75th | Red: >75th · Source: FRED BAMLH0A3HYC · Updated: Weekly · Has sector-linkage toggle

Peak Detection Layer

Signal 4 — Semiconductor Leadership

Peak

GREEN 0/4 weeks

SOXX outperforming or within -5% of SPY on 4-week rolling basis. Semiconductor leadership intact.

Green: ≥ -5% | Yellow: -5% to -10% | Red: < -10% · Source: Yahoo Finance · Updated: Weekly

Signal 5 — Market Breadth

Peak

GREEN 0/3 weeks

Above 70% of 14-stock AI basket trading above 200DMA. Broad participation in the rally.

Green: >70% | Yellow: 50–70% | Red: 35–50% | Severe: <35% · Source: Yahoo Finance · Updated: Weekly

Signal 6 — Margin Debt Rollover

Peak

GREEN 0/3 months

Margin debt rising or flat. No de-leveraging signal.

Green: Rising/flat | Yellow: Declining 1–2 mo | Red: Declining 3+ mo · Source: FINRA (manual, ~6wk lag) · Updated: Monthly

Research Layer

⚠ Context Only — No Escalation Weight

10Y TIPS Real Rate (DFII10)

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Chicago Fed NFCI

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SPY 3-Month Return

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VIX Level

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Research layer metrics provide macro context but carry zero voting weight in alert level calculations. The macro circuit breaker (SPY >15% decline + VIX >35) is informational only.