An educational project that tracks a three-tier early warning framework for technology bubbles. The framework is based on historical analysis of how the 2000 Dot-Com and 2008 Financial Crisis bubbles collapsed.
No. This is for educational purposes only. We are not licensed financial advisors. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
The framework has only been validated on 2 historical examples (2000, 2008). It did not apply to the 2022 bear market. Accuracy is unknown for future events. Use with extreme caution.
Each tier includes representative companies for that layer of the AI infrastructure stack. Tier 1 focuses on data centers and infrastructure, Tier 2 on chip and equipment makers, and Tier 3 on platform companies driving the narrative. Weights reflect market significance and relevance.
52-week highs provide a consistent, easy-to-verify reference point. They capture recent peaks without being too sensitive to short-term volatility. This mirrors how bubble peaks are typically analyzed historically.
Infrastructure companies (Tier 1) are more volatile and decline first, so they have tighter thresholds. Narrative leaders (Tier 3) are more resilient and decline last, so they have wider thresholds. This reflects the historical cascade pattern.
Additional metrics that can confirm infrastructure stress: investment-grade bond issuance trends, credit spreads, revenue warnings, hyperscaler capex trends, credit downgrades, and failed bond offerings. These can provide early confirmation of Tier 1 price signals.
Price data comes from Yahoo Finance. Debt stress indicators are manually updated based on public market data and news. All sources are publicly available.
Price data refreshes when you load the page. Debt stress indicators are updated periodically based on available public information.
The current version shows real-time signals only. Historical tracking may be added in future versions. All methodology changes are logged in the Changelog.
This is not a trading signal. Red signals indicate potential stress in the tracked tiers. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
The framework may not apply to: macro-driven corrections (like 2022), earnings-driven selloffs, geopolitical events, or situations where AI adoption truly justifies current valuations. Many reasons could cause it to fail.