BUBBLETROUBLE.WATCH

Early Warning System for Market Bubbles

About This Project

FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY - NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

What Is BubbleTrouble.watch?

BubbleTrouble.watch is an independent educational project that tracks a three-tier early warning framework for market bubbles. The framework is based on historical analysis of how sector-specific bubbles (like the 2000 Dot-Com and 2008 Financial Crisis) developed and collapsed.

The core insight is simple: in certain types of speculative bubbles, companies building infrastructure tend to fail first, followed by equipment providers, and finally narrative leaders. This cascade pattern provided early warning signals in 2000 and 2008, though it did not apply to the 2022 bear market.

Our Philosophy

Intellectual Honesty

We believe the best way to present analytical frameworks is with complete honesty about their limitations. You'll find throughout this site:

  • Acknowledgment of failures: We explicitly discuss when and why this framework failed (2022, 2020, 1987)
  • Limited sample size: We repeatedly emphasize that only 2 historical examples support this framework
  • No certainty: We never claim to predict the future or guarantee any outcomes
  • Multiple interpretations: We present alternative explanations for current signals

Transparency

Everything on this site is designed to be verifiable:

  • Public data: All data comes from Yahoo Finance, accessible to anyone
  • Documented methodology: Every calculation is explained in detail
  • Version control: All changes are logged in the Changelog before implementation
  • No retroactive changes: Historical signals always reflect the methodology active at that time

Educational Focus

This project exists to educate about:

  • How speculative bubbles have historically formed and collapsed
  • The concept of cascade effects in market structures
  • The importance of understanding framework limitations
  • How to think critically about market signals

It does NOT exist to provide investment advice or predict market movements.

What This Project Is NOT

  • Not a financial advisor: We are not licensed to provide investment advice
  • Not a prediction service: We cannot and do not predict market movements
  • Not affiliated with any financial institution: Completely independent
  • Not selling anything: No subscriptions, products, or services
  • Not collecting your data: No accounts, no tracking

Technical Details

How It Works

  • Client-side only: All calculations happen in your browser
  • No server backend: Static HTML, CSS, and JavaScript
  • Public API: Data fetched from Yahoo Finance
  • Open methodology: All formulas documented

Technology Stack

  • Static HTML5
  • CSS3 with custom properties
  • Vanilla JavaScript (no frameworks)
  • Yahoo Finance API for market data

Acknowledgments

This framework is inspired by historical market analysis and the work of many researchers who have studied market bubbles. Key influences include:

  • Historical analysis of the 2000 Dot-Com collapse
  • Studies of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
  • Research on speculative cycles and infrastructure buildout

Feedback

We welcome thoughtful feedback on the methodology, presentation, or educational content. However, please understand:

  • We cannot provide investment advice
  • We cannot make personalized recommendations
  • We cannot guarantee responses to all inquiries
Final Reminder

This is an educational project. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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