Changelog
All methodology changes are documented here before implementation. This ensures transparency and allows historical signals to be interpreted with the correct methodology version.
Version 1.0 - January 2026
Initial Release
First public release of the three-tier bubble warning framework.
Tier Composition
- Tier 1 (Infrastructure): CRWV 30%, DLR 25%, EQIX 25%, GLW 20%
- Tier 2 (Equipment): NVDA 40%, AVGO 25%, AMD 20%, ANET 15%
- Tier 3 (Narrative): MSFT 30%, GOOGL 25%, META 25%, AMZN 20%
Signal Thresholds
- Tier 1: Green > -15%, Yellow -15% to -30%, Red < -30%
- Tier 2: Green > -20%, Yellow -20% to -35%, Red < -35%
- Tier 3: Green > -25%, Yellow -25% to -40%, Red < -40%
Debt Stress Indicators
- Tech IG Issuance QoQ
- BBB Credit Spreads
- Revenue Warnings
- Hyperscaler Capex Trends
- Credit Downgrades
- Failed Issuance
- CoreWeave CDS (when available)
Data Sources
- Price data: Yahoo Finance API
- Debt data: SIFMA, Bloomberg, ICE (manually updated)
Future Changes
Any changes to the methodology will be documented here before implementation. Possible future updates include:
- Adjusting component weights based on market cap shifts
- Adding or removing component stocks
- Refining threshold levels based on backtesting
- Adding new debt stress indicators as they become available
Transparency Commitment
We commit to never retroactively changing historical signals. All past readings will always reflect the methodology that was active at that time.
