Changelog

Complete framework rewrite. Major milestone release.

Architecture

• Introduced two-horizon architecture: Structural (slow) + Peak Detection (fast)
• Three signal layers: Structural, Financing, Peak
• Formal decision tree with 5-step escalation logic

Signals

• MVP signal set locked at 6 signals
• Signal 1: Capex vs Revenue Divergence (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META)
• Signal 2: Private Credit Stress Basket (4 sub-indicators)
• Signal 3: HY Tech OAS Spreads with sector-linkage toggle
• Signal 4: Semiconductor Leadership (SOXX vs SPY)
• Signal 5: Market Breadth (14-stock AI basket above 200DMA)
• Signal 6: Margin Debt Rollover (FINRA data)

Rules & Safeguards

• Signal persistence requirements (3–4 weeks/months per signal)
• Sector-Linkage Veto: macro-driven HY stress reclassified as context
• Peak Signal Override: 2+ peak signals Red escalates +1 level
• Escalation Blockers: positive semis or strong breadth delays escalation
• Maximum escalation speed: +1 level per 4-week cycle
• Macro Circuit Breaker: SPY -15% + VIX >35 context flag

Other

• Re-entry framework with 3 phased deployment stages
• Research layer (TIPS, NFCI, SPY return, VIX) with zero voting weight
• Backtest calibration against 2000, 2008, 2022
• Public website rebuilt with 10 pages

Major revision of signal categorization and framework structure.

• Introduced Tier A/B/C signal categorization
• Expanded signal set beyond original 3 price-based tiers
• Added credit and financing indicators
• Improved alert level logic
• Public website launched

Initial release. Simple price-based monitoring system.

• 3-tier price-based system
• Tier 1: Infrastructure composite (CRWV/DLR/EQIX/GLW)
• Tier 2: SOXX vs SPY relative performance
• Tier 3: Mag 7 vs SPY relative performance
• Auto-fetch from Yahoo Finance
• Alert levels 0–4
• Personal dashboard only (no public site)