BubbleTrouble.watch - Market Bubble Early Warning Dashboard

TIER 1

Infrastructure Demand

Data centers, fiber, power infrastructure

🟡 YELLOW

Composite Signal

-18.4%

vs. 52-week high

Yellow: -15% to -30% | Red: Below -30%

Decline from Peak -18.4%

0% -15% -30%

COMPONENT STOCKS

Stock	Signal	Status
CRWV 30% weight KEY INDICATOR	-24.2%	Yellow
DLR 25% weight	-12.8%	Green
EQIX 25% weight	-15.1%	Yellow
GLW 20% weight	-18.6%	Yellow

⚠️ CRWV Divergence Detected - View Details

CoreWeave (CRWV) is significantly underperforming the composite, declining -24.2% while the composite is at -18.4%.

This divergence suggests infrastructure demand stress may be deeper than the composite indicates. CRWV is the most leveraged to AI infrastructure buildout.

Historical precedent: In 2000, infrastructure-specific companies (like fiber providers) showed similar leading declines before broader telecom weakness.

📊 Debt Stress Indicators 🟡 YELLOW (2/7)

View Details

Metric	Value	Status
Tech IG Issuance QoQ	-45%	Yellow
BBB Credit Spreads	215 bps	Yellow
Revenue Warnings	None	Green
Hyperscaler Capex	Up	Green
Credit Downgrades	None	Green
Failed Issuance	None	Green
CoreWeave CDS	N/A	— N/A

Interpretation: Moderate debt stress emerging. Issuance slowdown and spread widening suggest market caution, but fundamental demand (capex, revenue) still healthy. Watch for deterioration.

Historical context: In 2000, telecom debt stress appeared 3-6 months before infrastructure stock crashes. Debt metrics can provide early confirmation of Tier 1 price signals.

Context: Infrastructure companies are first to feel demand shifts. In 2000, fiber overbuilders crashed before equipment makers. Current signals suggest AI infrastructure demand may be slowing, but not collapsing.

First to fall in cascade • Watch for acceleration below -30%

TIER 2

Equipment Makers

Chips, servers, networking gear

🟢 GREEN

Composite Signal

-8.2%

vs. 52-week high

Yellow: -20% to -35% | Red: Below -35%

Decline from Peak -8.2%

0% -20% -35%

COMPONENT STOCKS

Stock	Signal	Status
NVDA 40% weight KEY INDICATOR	-9.4%	Green
AVGO 25% weight	-6.8%	Green
AMD 20% weight	-11.2%	Green
ANET 15% weight	-5.1%	Green

Context: Equipment makers typically fall after infrastructure. In 2000, Cisco and Nortel peaked months after fiber companies. Currently showing strength - watch for Tier 1 weakness to spread.

Second domino • Falls when infrastructure orders slow

TIER 3

Narrative Leaders

Platform companies, AI leaders

🟢 GREEN

Composite Signal

-4.1%

vs. 52-week high

Yellow: -25% to -40% | Red: Below -40%

Decline from Peak -4.1%

0% -25% -40%

COMPONENT STOCKS

Stock	Signal	Status
MSFT 30% weight	-3.2%	Green
GOOGL 25% weight	-5.8%	Green
META 25% weight	-4.1%	Green
AMZN 20% weight	-3.5%	Green

Context: Narrative leaders are last to fall. In 2000, Microsoft didn't peak until months after infrastructure collapsed. Current strength is expected - these only fall after cascade completes.

Last to fall • Final confirmation of bubble burst

Understanding the Three-Tier Framework

This dashboard tracks a three-tier early warning system based on historical analysis of how technology bubbles have collapsed. The key insight: infrastructure fails first, then equipment, then narrative leaders.

Tier 1 (Infrastructure) - Companies building physical infrastructure (data centers, fiber, power). These are first to feel demand shifts because they're closest to actual deployment.
Tier 2 (Equipment) - Companies selling picks and shovels (chips, servers, networking). They fall when infrastructure orders slow.
Tier 3 (Narrative) - Platform companies leading the narrative. They fall last because optimism persists longest here.

This pattern was observed in 2000 (Dot-Com) and 2008 (Financial Crisis). It did not apply to 2022's bear market, which was driven by macro factors rather than sector-specific overbuilding.

Learn More About the Framework View Historical Cases Full Methodology